Plannability is an illusion at a time when uncertainty and uncertainty are normal. Corona shows us that companies and people must develop resilience, which is more than just the will to survive.
Is uncertainty the new normality?
Whether acute like SARS-CoV-2 or creeping like the climate catastrophe: What is perceived as a state of emergency can today be understood as a constant companion in various guises. "Uncertainty is the new normality," explained IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva recently in an interview with the German weekly magazine Der Spiegel. If she is right in her assessment, we will have to fundamentally change our perspective on crises. In organizations, a crisis is seen as an exceptional situation that
In 2021 many companies want to invest more again.
As long as crises are rare, this behaviour can work. But when it is hardly possible to have a complete overview of something, when a whole time is marked by unpredictability, it will be less and less helpful to see crises as individual cases and to want to manage them detached from each other in the survival mode that has to be activated again and again. Rather, we must begin to understand crises as a productive force in order to be able to shape in and with it and, in the best case, to emerge from it stronger.
Black swans
Against the current backdrop, the reference to a Black Swan, which the philosopher and financial mathematician Nassim Nicholas Taleb uses as an image for events that occur unexpectedly and suddenly and are at the same time extremely effective, is once again popular. Taleb himself made it clear that SARS-CoV-2 is not a Black Swan in his understanding. With a view to history, which has always been characterized by the coexistence of humans and a multitude of deadly viruses, and to a globally networked world as an accelerator of superlatives, a worldwide pandemic seems to be merely a question of when and not whether. In this context, futurology also speaks of Known Unknowns - things we know about but cannot know their details before they occur. In the case of SARS-CoV-2, we cannot speak of a truly unforeseeable event, an Unknown Unknown: "The pandemic, in fact, is the whitest of white swans. So it's arresting that in many ways it's taken us by surprise. The crisis we inhabit now is many things; but is it in part a failure to think properly about our shared future?
Inevitably, the question arises of how we can prepare ourselves for completely unforeseeable events, when the Known Unknowns already present us with considerable problems.
The question raised by the future thinker and journalist David Mattin becomes all the more compelling when we consider what could soon be in store for humanity. Rapid climate change is making nature more and more unpredictable and also us humans who depend on it. Natural disasters and wars could be the result, which would demand far more from us than a few days without the much-cited toilet paper. And even these scenarios do not yet take into account cosmic catastrophes, as they have already cost the existence of several species of our planet. Inevitably, the question arises of how we can prepare for completely unpredictable events, when the Known Unknowns are already confronting us with considerable problems and causing our societies to shake violently.
Beyond survival
Our fragility is concealed by the fact that we simulate predictability by trying to address the problem with deadlines (such as the duration of curfews) and forecasts (such as the production of a vaccine). There is nothing wrong with this per se - at the same time, if overemphasized, it tempts us to lull ourselves into a false sense of security (and in the worst case it can even be interpreted as an intentional encroachment on personal freedom and dignity) and then we tend to persist and wait until the exceptional situation is overcome and things can continue "normally" again. Such an attitude ultimately prevents us from seeing crises as opportunities.
Healthy restraint must be accompanied by resistance and adaptability, which can absorb, transform and use the forces acting on it to survive in a constantly changing environment. Organisations can do this by using their energy in times of crisis to achieve reformulated results, activate resources, create improvements and seek new and creative solutions.
Mobility is possible
Such a form of mobility and resistance sounds presuppositional. Some companies are already demonstrating that they are capable of doing so by making a start: Numerous clothing manufacturers, large and small, such as Trigema, Eterna, Prada or H&M, started producing face masks and protective suits right at the beginning of the crisis, and some large car manufacturers are copying them. Jägermeister, Klosterfrau and Pernod Ricard supply alcohol for the production of disinfectants. The bakers and butchers next door offer various hygiene products for sale. Further afield, a few small businesses venture out when they develop apps that remind us to wash our hands, or connect users to their local hairdressers via an app to get instructions on how to cut hair and beard at home (at least halfway decently).
For future crises, it will be crucial to develop a resilience that goes beyond the impulse to survive, so that organizations can not only react but also actively act and shape.
The list could go on for some time. Because what began as a heroic act by a few companies and firms is already a new benchmark after only a few weeks. At the same time, as in every crisis, there are calls for bailouts, scrappage schemes and heavy aid packages, because the sometimes exorbitant pursuit of profit by organisations through radical downsizing and record dividend payouts is not compatible with sustainable management, which would allow for robustness even in times of crisis thanks to financial cushions and foresight. As a result, large organisations appear fragile even during a comparatively harmless crisis and in some cases their very existence is actually threatened.
Develop resilience
For future crises, it will be crucial to develop a resilience that goes beyond the impulse to survive, so that organizations can not only react but also actively act and shape. In preparation for this, a more sustainable economy in all respects is essential. In order to be able to act productively even in a crisis, attempts to predict a future and avert impending vulnerability (which is usually attempted with the help of rules, instructions or standards) will be of little use. Instead, it is crucial to enable employees to develop their individual resilience.
"We must understand crises as a productive force, in order to be able to shape in and with it and, in the best case, to emerge from it stronger.
If an organisation wants to be mobile, people must be allowed and able to move. Both also require a certain stability, which common values can provide. The current crisis can enrich the breeding ground for this: whether it is the fashion designer who designs protective suits and masks, or the factory worker who has to ensure and optimize a clean production process with previously unknown machines. However, a temporary switch to the production of urgently needed goods can only be a start and becomes questionable at the latest when it degenerates into a PR stunt.
In all social areas, we can and should currently freely address the question of common values and the shaping of the economy and society. This includes not only the fragile and environmentally damaging production of goods and food scattered around the world, but also questions about virtual work and cooperation, or the position of the local community and the environment that can be directly experienced. The serious confrontation with these questions will make us personally and our organizations more flexible and resilient and ultimately enable us to think and shape beyond survival even in crises.
This article was originally published by: WWW.NEWMANAGEMENT.HAUFE.DE